Predictions: The next gen console war.

[phoenix1967]

How do you think the next gen console wars will play out?

Imo, I think that it's obvious that the Wii and PS3 will sell out this holiday season worldwide. 360 will also do well because of the limited availability of the Wii and PS3. 

In early '07, we'll likely hear about console returns for the PS3 and Wii due to defective units. This will likely impact PS3 harder, though, for the reason that the 360 will be available as an immediate replacement, and at a lower cost. Wii owners with defective units will likely just wait to get a replacement Wii.

The Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD war will likely not be resolved until holiday 2007. Therefore, if the PS3 owners are happy and the system fixes the concerns about long download times, et al, the PS3 will remain competitive in this new generation. However, the Wii's low cost and availability will give it the edge in consoles sold. 360 will maintain a steady competitive console base due to the strong software exclusives coming out for the system in '07 and the fact that there are cross-platform titles with it and the PS3 as well as the 360's lower price.

By holiday 2007, though, both the Wii and PS3 will need to show a better representation of console exclusives in order to hold their edge and protect their market shares against the 360. Due to the uniqueness of the Wii, this should not be an issue for them along with the fact that they're better positioned to appeal to casual gamers. PS3's success in holiday 2007 is a big question mark at this point because of the cross-platforming of a lot of titles to the 360. Fanboy loyalty will likely keep the PS3 afloat throughout 2007, but to gain market share, they will likely need a BIG drop in console price in the '07 holiday season (as well as Blu-Ray winning the HD war) to attract consumers to their system.

360's market position will likely have a slow and steady growth of new console owners in '07 due to console exclusives, but they're going to really have to sell the benefits of their system's HD capabilities as being comparable/better than PS3's and keep their price point down as far as possible.

By the time '08 rolls around, the Wii and 360 are likely to have price drops down to about 200 and 300, respectively. And the PS3 may have dropped it's 60gb unit down to 500. At which point the market share battles may look like 40% Wii, and 30% each for 360 and PS3. Which is still not significant enough to determine a "winner", but if one needs to be chosen at that point, Wii would likely take the top spot by the sheer volume of ground it gained from where it sits in the current gen with GC.

Just my $.02. Thoughts?

[The Metamorphosing Leon]

Sounds realistic enough. Except for the part where Wiis turn out to be evil robots attempting to take control of the galaxy.

[Izret101]

My $.02

Wii catches up or even surpasses the # of 360s on the market.

PS3 dwindles and is only a system for the rich or most hardcore MGS fans at first.


I have discovered that MANY people on (at least my) college campus of varying ages and gaming backgrounds(from non to WAY to much) all have interest in purchasinbg a Wii for themselves or a loved one.

Because it looks unique, fun and it is within their price range.
Or slightly above said pricerange. But it is atleast affordable.

[Tynstar]

I think the Wii will make the most money and I hope it has the biggest market share. I think it will due to the easy of play (if it is easy) and cost.

PS3 and the 360 will have about the same market share. But the 360will mark more money due to the lower cost of making it.

Also I hope Blu-Ray fails.

[TraderJake]

I think that Sony is going to have a hard time getting people to bite onto a $500 system, especially in the US where Microsoft appears to have a lot of things going for it. Nabbing GTA at the same time as the PS3 was a huge coup for Microsoft, and I think that in addition to that other big name title, what was it... oh yeah Halo 3 was it... surely Microsoft probably will have a good time in Europe and North America. Unfortunately, the Japanese just seem to hate the poor system.

Sony, Sony, Sony, where to begin. Sony could lose half a billion dollars in the battery recall fiasco, so the success of all its IPs is essential if it wants to make it to 2010. Unfortunately, Sony may have priced itself out of the market, and even in doing so it is still losing a crap load of money on each system sold. Couple that with the fact that there is a lot of people talking about buying a PS3 for the blu-ray player, and there could be issues. The other thing that really worries me about Sony is their apparent lack of anything original. Siaxis? The motion sensitive controller seems so gimmcky in the manner that the motion sensitivity is not the high point of the controller, and it is reported that the PS3 controller does not feel very nice^[1]. On the game side the apparent unoriginality is horrifying. What's going to happen when people get bored of pretty graphics and blood, guts, and sweat. You can only press the graphical boundary so far, and in doing so we see a rise in the cost of development. I do think that perhaps in the long run the Sony PS3 could be a success, but it is going to be a tumultuous ride up until that point.

Nintendo, they've got the hype machine rolling on their side, but are they going to follow through with their promise? After all, they had that keynote, "Wii Prove Our Promise," will they actually prove that their console is something is completely different from the rest? Are their games exciting for Non-gamers? Is it going to get those promised new groups into the gaming fold? Honestly, I don't know. What I do know is that Wii has potential, and its sexy. Very Sexy. Not quite as sexy as my cobalt blue SP, but still pretty damn sexy. I really wanted a blue Wii, but no, they had to release one color. Those bastards. Nintendo knows how to sell systems. Release only one color, and then slowly roll out the other colors. Certainly it worked for the DS Lite, will it work for the Wii. I'm sure it will.  Nintendo's biggest challenge with the Wii is proving that the concept is not a gimmick, and if it can do so I'm sure the Wii will sell a hell of a lot of consoles. They started off on the relatively right foot -- their most powerful IP is a launch title, and damn, we all want it. Badly. Damnit, give me Twilight Princess Now!!!

The war will be bloody. Each company has obstacles in its way. Microsoft has Japan as its major stumbling block. But one thing Microsoft has going for it is the fact that the company has a lot of money to place behind its product, more than anyone else. I expect a rosy generation for Microsoft in every region but Japan. Next, let's talk about the Wii. Nintendo may have rubbed a few people the wrong way with its $250 price tag.^[2] But, if it can show that the experience is worth the price then I think Nintendo will have something other than the DS that prints money. The other obstacle Nintendo has is showing the people who think that graphics are everything that in reality it's the experience that counts. I have a feeling that Nintendo is going to benefit from viral marketing on that one -- Word of mouth makes anything popular really quick. Lastly, Sony, who I'll consider the wild card of the bunch. If Sony gets costs down and is able to sell the system for less I think it'll do really well. Unfortunately, that day probably won't come soon. People will most likely buy the console, but will Sony be able to withstand the losses incurred, especially when one company is actually turning a profit on their system from day 1? Sony needs to stay healthy, but that could be a hard task.




Citations:
[1] Joystiq. http://www.joystiq.com/20...ds-on-new-ps3-controller/
[2] Planet Gamecube Forum. http://www.planetgamecube...tid=28&threadid=17684

[The Metamorphosing Leon]

My English comp teacher would be proud.

[TraderJake]

No he or she wouldn't I didn't proofread my work.

[James]

Everyone I've spoken to (Real people *gasp*) thinks the Wii looks like a stupid piece of crap with an equally stupid name. These are casual to non-gamers.

Nintendo generally neglected the Gamecube over here. Some of the launch games have actually gone up in price. These days, the Gamecube gets probably one metre of shelf space, if any. All the people I know who have had a Gamecube have hated it. I don't think the Wii will be any better over here, especially considering it's £180 and you can get a 360 for a little more, especially with the prices coming down soon.

Nintendo are seen as a kiddie company, and a lot of gamers are grown up now. I don't think the Wii will sell too well over here. If it does it's going to be for children who think it's the best thing EVAR, despite every toy being the best thing evar. I went through that phase, every new film I saw was the best one I had ever seen. Even Casper. I think the franchises have been milked to death and it's time for some new icons. Most of the games on my DS have something to do with Mario. It seems a lot of people like Nintendo because it's cool to be retro, and Old Skool Nintendo had Super Mario Bros.



The PS3 will no doubt sell out for the first six months but I think it's mainly the die hard Sony Playstation fans who will buy it at full price. I've heard of a couple of people saying they want one just for the BluRay player. You have to admit for what it is the PS3 is good value. However, it's still a lot of money. Looking at the PS3 launch games, a lot of them are 360 ports or sports games. Sony have lost their exclusives. A Sony employee has said something like "European gamers don't mind delays", which I think is quite offensive. Just because we buy the product when it eventually comes doesn't mean we're happy with the wait. I'm not getting a PS3 for a long time. Sony has crapped on Europe too much recently.


I think the 360 will do very well, as long as they don't keep breaking. Mine has frozen a couple of times already and I've only had it for 11 days. They have a very good online service which has been proven to work. Few people know what the PS3 online service will be like. There are some quality games coming out for it in November, the time when people will be buying it for Christmas.


It all comes down to the games. The majority of gamers these days are in their late teens and early twenties. They'll mostly be wanting games that suit their age. The Xbox 360 library is nearly entirely for adults, which I think will put parents off.


Anyway, in conclusion: Xbox 360.

[Kevincal]

Nintendo for the win by a slim margine over the 360.  PS3 not far behind in 3rd...

[chrisbid]

i dont really care what happens, but sonys business model requires them to have the biggest market share just to make a profit.  even if the PS3 gets the biggest market share, but not more than 50%, then sony will start bleeding money.  this is a company that has done well with video games so far, but doesnt need them to survive.  like warner and atari, sony could end up selling the playstation brand if they end up taking a bath in losses.

[Ghost Soldier]

"Nintendo may have rubbed a few people the wrong way with its $250 price tag." I really disagree with this statement.  How about a $500 PS3 or a $400 360.  If nintendo's predictions are right about appealing to the masses with a easy to use machine.  $250 is ideal especially with a pack-in game.  My money is going to the wii and when microsoft drops its 360 price and releases halo3 then they'll get some money.  As far as sony, who wants blu-ray?  Sure you can store vast amounts of data, but what is on a typical dvd ?  Answer: The movie, trailer, and deleted scenes if your lucky. I cannot really tell much of a difference in picture quality either. Sorry but I'm comfortable with dvd and hd-dvd.  I'm not going to go buy your blu-ray dvd player or your ps3 only to have it break down on me.  Just my 2 abes.

[TraderJake]

"Nintendo may have rubbed a few people the wrong way with its $250 price tag." I really disagree with this statement. 

Sorry, I forgot my second citation. It's there now.
http://www.planetgamecube...tid=28&threadid=17684

[The Metamorphosing Leon]

Oh man plagiarism. You fail the class.

[Ghost Soldier]

aight got ya now traderjake 8-)

[Ando]

Honestly, I think it could go either way. While the Wii really has sold a lot of people with its low cost and awesome games, there are still the diehard Sony fans who will buy the system no matter what. Of course, those type of people dramatically decrease in number as the days continue and Sony makes more fantastic statements (Europe don't get no PS3 till March! Lik-Sang is teh suxx0rz!).

As for the 360, I really have no clue. I honestly think that it'll place third when going up against Wii lovers and Sony fanatics.

But truly, I don't think we'll know for sure until the later months pass. I mean, a lot of people didn't think the DS would succeed at first, but as time passed, they realized they were wrong.