This is of interest to me as my younger brother wants to get one for Xmas, and definitely won't be able to fix one, he'll have to rely on warranties. Tan had said the latest models don't suffer the RROD overheating issue, but I really want to confirm this and if the newest models are just as rubbish as the older ones.
I can attest that the new Falcon models are quieter, cooler and more reliable. I bought a Falcon Elite several months ago to replace my dead Pro and it's a marked improvement. Also I haven't heard or read of any widespread problem with the new ones, nor has anyone I know had to replace their Falcons yet. I've heard no more complaints about the new models than Wiis or PS3's breaking down. Mostly it's just the same bitter people beating a dead horse and continuing to complain loudly over the internet.
You can avoid buying a game console because of fear of it's reliability, but no system will ever have a 100% track record. I've had a harder time with my DS's than my X360's. In the first week I had to replace my DS twice. It didn't stop me from owning one and the third time was the charm. Waiting for reliability in later models doesn't guarantee it either, but what it does do is take the "new" out of all the games you missed out on. There's something to be said of enjoying a game during it's prime and being "in the moment" with your fellow gamers. Not many conversations start up about first year games for the three current systems anymore.
So as sad as it is, I suggest only buy a new console if you
really, really want it and only if you can support it. Meaning you can pop out and buy a new one if the needs arises, or wait for a replacement because you've got other systems to use in the meantime. If reliability concerns stay your hand, then you probably aren't as eager for the games as you should be for a half a grand investment. No one can read the future and until we've hit the magic 5 year mark, we'll won't know how any of these systems will age.